To predict effects of global change on zooplankton populations, it is important to understand how present species adapt to temperature and how they respond to stressors interacting with temperature. Here, we ask if the calanoid copepod Eurytemora affinis from the Baltic Sea can adapt to future climate warming. Populations were sampled at sites with different temperatures. Full sibling families were reared in the laboratory and used in two common garden experiments (a) populations crossed over three temperature treatments 12, 17, and 22.5°C and (b) populations crossed over temperature in interaction with salinity and algae of different food quality. Genetic correlations of the full siblings’ development time were not different from zero between 12°C and the two higher temperatures 17 and 22.5°C, but positively correlated between 17 and 22.5°C. Hence, a population at 12°C is unlikely to adapt to warmer temperature, while a population at ≥17°C can adapt to an even higher temperature, that is, 22.5°C. In agreement with the genetic correlations, the population from the warmest site of origin had comparably shorter development time at high temperature than the populations from colder sites, that is, a cogradient variation. The population with the shortest development time at 22.5°C had in comparison lower survival on low quality food, illustrating a cost of short development time. Our results suggest that populations from warmer environments can at present indirectly adapt to a future warmer Baltic Sea, whereas populations from colder areas show reduced adaptation potential to high temperatures, simply because they experience an environment that is too cold.
Karlsson, K, Winder, M. Adaptation potential of the copepod Eurytemora affinis to a future warmer Baltic Sea. Ecol Evol. 2020; 00: 1– 17. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.6267
We used dynamic factor analysis to study if there are common patterns of interannual
variation that are shared (“common trends”) among summer phytoplankton total and class-level biomass time series observed across Baltic Sea latitudinal gradients in salinity and temperature. We evaluated alternative hypotheses regarding common trends among summer phytoplankton biomass: Baltic Sea-wide common trends; common trends by geography (latitude and basin); common trends differing among functional groups (phytoplankton classes); or common trends driven by both geography and functional group.
Summer phytoplankton blooms in the Gulf of Finland. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory image by Joshua Stevens and Lauren Dauphin, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey and MODIS data from LANCE/EOSDIS Rapid Response
Our results indicated little support for a common trend in total summer phytoplankton biomass. At a finer resolution, classes had common trends that were most closely associated with the cryptophyte and cyanobacteria time series with patterns that differed between northern and southern sampling stations. These common trends were also very sensitive to two anomalous years (1990, 2008) of cryptophyte biomass. The Baltic Sea Index, a regional climate index, was correlated with two common class trends that shifted in mean state around the mid-1990s. The limited coherence in phytoplankton biomass variation over time despite known, large-scale, ecosystem shifts suggests that stochastic dynamics at local scales limits the ability to observe common trends at the scale of monitoring data collection.